terça-feira, 23 de setembro de 2014

Workshop


Question: what is workshop?
Answer: men work, women shop.


The husband says to his wife? “If I don’t work, you will have no money to shop”.

The wife replies: “If women don’t shop, the shops will be closed, the factories will be closed, you will be out of work and millions of people lose their jobs. All economic activities come to a complete stop. The country – and the world – moves form mild recession to great depression.

This scenario actually happened om USA in early 1930’s. Hoover, the republican candidate. Advocated low interest loans to Ford to re-open the factory (production creates consumption). Roosevelt , the democratic candidate, did the contrary. His “New Deal” was based on keynesian theory that consumption creates production.

Roosevelt and his keynesian economists undertook the following measures to stimulate consumption:

Mininum wages – increase workers capacity to spend and consume. If every worker buys a shirt, the shirt factory will re-open and employ more workers – a virtuous circle of consumption creating production.

Installments – banks finance purchase of automobils om 24 months with low interest rate, purchase or construction of houses with mortgage of 20 to 30 years for payment. “A house on every piece of land, two cars in every garage”.

Low rate of interest – stimulus for automobil sales and house constructions. Also banks return to profit and employ more people, again a virtuous circle.

There was even suggestions from Roosevelt’s keynesian economists that the american bank note should have a date of validity (data de vencimento) to accelerate spending and consumption. However, this crazy suggestion from crazy economists was not adopted.

In conclusion, we shall be thankful to our wifes, for their role in the society. If they don’t shop, we will be all be without work.

I have a joint account with my wife in a local bank. “Joint” means I deposit and she withdraws. I work, she shops. I am glad that she contributes more than I do to the well being of our society.


terça-feira, 9 de setembro de 2014

Bolsa versus Eleição

No mês de agosto de 2014, a Bovespa subiu 10% com destaque para Petrobrás PN (+23%) e Banco do Brasil (+29%). Apesar da queda de Vale (-9%), devido à queda do preço do minério de ferro, a bolsa teve um desempenho excelente.

O mercado foi impulsionado principalmente pelas pesquisas eleitorais indicando que a presidenta Dilma não ganharia a eleição no primeiro turno, e no segundo turno, perderia para Marina Silva com margem de 10%.

Desde o inicio do 2º semestre, a bolsa dançava com as pesquisas eleitorais. O mercado cai quando Dilma lidera nas intenções de votos; e sobe quando ela perde terreno para os concorrentes. Os investidores da bolsa não gostam de Dilma pelo o que ela faz com Petrobrás (congelar os preços de gasolina e diesel para segurar o índice da inflação). Para os investidores da bolsa, não importa se ganhar o Aécio Neves ou Marina Silva, desde que Dilma perca a eleição, aleluia!

Os investidores sentiram na carne e osso os prejuízos com Petrobrás e a bolsa. Dinheiro acima da ideologia. PSDB, PSB, tanto faz. PT, chega! Após uma dinastia de 12 anos, o país precisa de mudança!