sexta-feira, 25 de maio de 2007

Petrobrás versus Petroquímica

Quando sobe o preço internacional do petróleo (Londres ou New York), as ações da Petrobrás tendem a subir, e as ações do setor petroquímico (Braskem, Suzano Petroquímica, Unipar, etc) tendem a cair.

A alta do preço do petróleo levanta o preço da nafta, que é a principal matéria prima para as empresas petroquímicas.
Neste momento (preço do petróleo entre US$ 65 e 70) aposto na queda dos preços do petróleo e da nafta pelos seguintes motivos:

a) as guerras no Oriente Médio devem arrefecer. O Congresso e o Senado americanos, tendo os democratas a maioria em ambas as casas, são contra o prolongamento do envolvimento americano nas guerras;


b) o consumo de petróleo e heating oil deve arrefecer na primavera e verão do hemisfério norte;

c) a China deve diminuir a taxa de crescimento para o nível sustentável. O resto da Ásia deve seguir os seus passos. O resto do mundo deve tag along também.

A eventual queda do preço da nafta beneficia as ações petroquímicas acima citadas. É a minha aposta! Comentários são bem-vindos!


Enviado por John Tong

7 comentários:

mark disse...

Dear Mr. Tong,
That´s a good point about petrobras vs. petroquimica and it looks all depends on where oil prices are going. I don't know, but perhaps I can help by suggesting what to investigate. I believe the fundamental question is what's behind recent years hike in oil prices. Structural changes or just another long cycle ? Probably a mix of both, but which one carries more weight? If it is structural, like a new level of demand from China and developing countries, together with supply depletion, then we won't see $40 to $50/barrel so soon. In the past, oil futures use to be a good predictor if prices were going to get back down. In both gulf wars, spot prices rose sharply, but when you looked at futures trading one to two years ahead, prices were well below spot, indicating that after the war prices were going back to normal levels. Last year, future prices were always higher than spot, which could indicate structural changes and not just a cycle. I don't know how futures are nowadays but it might be worth checking. which petrochemical stock you like most among ones you mentioned ?

luizaralmeida@uol.com.br disse...

Sr. Tong,

Como vai?

Sou amiga de sua filha Patrícia e fiquei muito contente em poder acessar o seu blog, pois estou começando a investir em ações.
Tenho tido algumas experiências positivas e outras nem tanto!
Parabéns pelos comentários sobre quais ações apostar.
Acho que vai ser muito útil para quem está iniciando nesta área.
Aproveito p/ lhe consultar sobre lançamentos de ofertas públicas. É a mesma coisa que as IPO?
É um bom investimento?

Abraços,

Luiza Almeida

Paulo G disse...

Oi, Senhor Tong,
Aproveitando o tema (mais ou menos), tenho ações da Vale do Rio Doce e estava pensando em trocar por ações da Petrobrás (ou Petroquímica), o que o senhor acha?
Obrigado

John Tong disse...

Dear Mark,
Thank you for your input, I will look further into structural and cycle drivers. However, taking another example from the airline industry, a US$ 10/barrel price move meant US$ 800 million on American Airlines botton line. Therefore a US$ 10 to 15 change in price could impact significantly all industries that has oil or oil derivatives as raw materials or direct costs. rgds,

John Tong disse...

Prezado Paulo g,
Conforme meu comentário, no médio prazo, estou apostando mais em petroquímica do que em petrobrás. um abraço.

Patrick disse...

I agree with Mark about the structural change. There are very comprehensive data tables on the BP website showing oil output, consuption and total reserves. While production rose around 19% from 1995-2005 total proven reserves increased 17%. So the Reserves/Prodution ratio has remained fairly constant at 40 years. However, this has been pulled by a rising demand mostly from US, China and India. These countries represent 36% of oil consumption in the world but have accounted for 57% of the increase from 1995 to 2005. I think that unless demand stabilizes or cheaper substitutes are introduced, the prices wont retreat even on the long term. For those who seek investments on alternative energy companies watch out for stocks like:
XsunX - (XSNX.OB)
Suntech - (STP)
China Sunergy - (CSUN)
SolarFunPower - (SOLARF)
JA Solar - (JASO)
Trina Solar - (TSL)

Valter Bianchi Filho disse...

Dr. Mr. Tong. I am friend of your daughter, Patrícia, and his son, Patrick. Your blog is excellent, and thanks for sharing your broad knowledge about financial markets. I do agree with you about investing in the petrochemical industry. I also expect the oil prices to cool down, because I think the world will react and find other source of energy in the medium term. I don't think global economy could growth in a sustainable pace with oil prices above U$ 60. Regarding the Petrochemical, last year we had in Brazil the start of the Rio Polímeros (PE) plant, which reduced the price power of the players (mainly Braskem). This year, in spite of the record of NAFTA prices (above U$ 700 / ton), we will see 2Q07 results indicating the recover of the pricing power. It is important to remark that The Middle East plants - which are considered to be the ghost of the long run - will only produce PE. Braskem, my favorite for this sector, is improving its PP plants and have Venezuela and Ethanol as further options.